October Last Week's Call 24 - 29 /10

After a longgg Pause...M Back..

Please Maintain Strict Stop Loss.
Please Find call Info Given inside every chart..

August Week 02-06 2010 Call

Please Maintain Strict Stop Loss. Book 50-100 % on 1st target. Risky Trader can continue for 2nd & 3rd Target as per their appetite...

Please Find call Info Given inside every chart..

To do 'God's work', bankers need morals...

When Goldman Sachs chief executive Lloyd Blankfein claimed that he and his fellow bankers were "doing God's work", there was near-universal incredulity. Banking has never looked less like a divine calling. Indeed, in the public mind bankers have achieved what would once have been thought impossible: they have managed to sink lower than journalists.

Have banks become ethically as well as literally bankrupt since 1982, the year Siegmund Warburg died and, with him, the era of "relationship banking"? Was the love of money – to be precise, fat bonuses – the root of all the economic evil we are currently enduring? And, if the answer is yes, is tighter regulation the solution?

You might well think so. "We cannot control ourselves. You have to step in and control [Wall] Street." Those were the immortal words of John Mack, former chief executive of Morgan Stanley, speaking last November.

We know from the hubristic emails of the Goldman Sachs trader Fabrice Tourre just how out-of-control things were on the eve of the financial crisis. Tourre positively gloried in selling the quintessential toxic assets – "synthetic abs" (asset-backed securities) and "cdo2s" (collateralised debt obligations "squared") – to "Belgian widows and orphans", knowing full well that the subprime mortgages on which these assets were based were already "totally dead".

"More and more leverage in the system," wrote "Fab" to a girlfriend. "The entire edifice threatens to collapse at any moment. Only potential survivor, the fabulous Fab... standing in the middle of all these complex, highly levered, exotic trades he created without necessarily understanding all the implications of those monstrosities."

"Anyway," he went on, "not feeling too guilty about this, the real purpose of my job is to make capital markets more efficient and ultimately provide the US consumer with more efficient ways to leverage... himself, so there is a humble, noble and ethical reason for my job ;) amazing how good I am in convincing myself !!!"

With its sly winks and surplus exclamation marks, Tourre's email perfectly encapsulates the spirit of the age – an age in which clients were merely "counterparties" and conflicts of interest were there to be "embraced".

To some commentators, this is precisely what happens when deregulation gives free rein to greed. Cocky clever-dicks make a killing at the expense of widows and orphans. Answer: more regulation – a lot more. That is certainly what is coming Wall Street's way: the final version of the new law devised by Senator Chris Dodd and Representative Barney Frank runs to 2,319 pages.

Yet things were not so very different in the more tightly regulated markets that produced the secondary banking crisis of the 1970s. That era also had its Madoff, its Bear Stearns and its Lehman Brothers – though who now remembers Gerald Caplan of London and County Securities, or Cedar Holdings, or Triumph Investment Trust?

The real lesson of history is that regulation alone is not the key to financial stability. Indeed, over-complicated regulation can be the disease it purports to cure, by encouraging a culture of box-ticking "compliance" rather than individual moral judgment. The question that gets asked in highly regulated markets is not: "Are we doing the right thing?" but "Can we get away with this?"

What is more important is to instil in financial professionals the kind of ethical framework that was the basis of Siegmund Warburg's life and work. "Success from the financial and from the prestige point of view... is not enough," Warburg told his fellow directors in 1959. "What matters even more is constructive achievement and adherence to high moral and aesthetic standards in the way in which we do our work."

That is the spirit that seems to have vanished from the City since the 1980s. In my view, business education urgently needs to be reformed so that bankers learn to strive for more than just the "maximisation of shareholder value" (code for driving up the share price by fair means or foul). The next generation of financiers needs something like a Hippocratic oath, along the lines recently proposed by students at Harvard Business School. It is no accident that Warburg thought of himself as a "financial physician". The world needs money doctors, not investment bankers focused myopically on "the numbers".

Better education, not over-regulation, is needed to repair our financial system. Banking will never be God's work. But we can make it less like the Devil's.

found at:http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/

July Week 19-24 2010 Call

Please Maintain Strict Stop Loss. Book 50-100 % on 1st target. Risky Trader can continue for 2nd & 3rd Target as per their appetite...

Please Find call Info Given inside every chart..

I have a caution about Gitanjali Gems call mentioned below:

In last 2 days, 4,50,000 shares bought by a firm "Priyanka Gems Pvt. Ltd." which is registered at exactly the same address as "Gitanjali Gems Ltd." is registered; i.e. 801/802, Prasad Chambers, Opera House, Mumbai. Maharashtra - 400004. Also the chairman has bought lots of shares of the company in last few days and that`s why the share price has zoomed from 120 levels to these 52 week highs. The most strange thing is, they did not buy much when it was available at too cheap levels of 110-125 for 8 months since last September to April. I am smelling dirty operator + Promoter game here but it an be genuine one also.So plz maintain strict stop loss as if its genuine then it can fly like anything.Be cautious...

Update:

1) Tulip Telecom - 2nd Target Achieved

2) DhanLakshmi Bank - Stock didn't move to any side of our call. No Position made

3) Walchand Nagar - Stock didn't move to anyside of our call. No Position made

4) Rallis India - 1st target Achieved

5) Cummins India - 1st target Achieved

6) Panacea Bio - All Target Achieved

7) Oil India - Sell call triggered But SL HIT

8) Mahindra Holiday - ALL Target Achieved

9) Bayer - All Target Achieved

10) BASf - SL HIT

11) Gitanjali Gems - ALL Target Achieved

12) S Kumar - SL Hit

13) Adani Ent - All Target Achieved

investing for Dividends

Some Reasons to invest in Dividends...

One way to profit from owning stocks in a market downturn is to buy and own stocks paying high dividend yields. If you can't be active in the markets, then you can buy and hold dividend stocks paying a high yield. Hopefully a yield that is paying as much or more than inflation. So a yield of 5% plus would be attractive.

Investing is rarely easy, but it's unusually difficult these days. Cash, T-bills and money-market funds offer microscopic yields. Long-term Treasuries pay more, but they're exposed to the threat of higher inflation. Stocks were legitimately cheap a year ago, but stocks are hard to buy in a crisis. As the crisis passed, prices shot up, and bargains quickly vanished. Yet one fact remains crystal clear: Investors cannot count on capital gains alone.

This basic menu for your money may not sound appetizing, but it could be worse. On any given day, we might hear of market-timing strategies, technical analysts and their squiggly charts, gold and other commodities, options, futures, private partnerships and so on. These strategies may have merit if you can make investing a full-time job and you have a glass-lined stomach for the risk, stress, and inevitable losses involved.

What I'd like to do is cut through all this clutter with a simple proposition: Let's make investing simpler, more practical, and more likely to yield good rewards. Collecting healthy cash dividends may not be the only way to make money, but after considering the alternatives, dividends may be the best.

What's the strategy, in a nutshell? Seek to invest in good businesses that pay large dividends that grow over time, for long-term rewards. To do this, think less like a trader, and more like a businessman. Let's take a look at a few key points.

It's Just Good Business

A good business is not simply one whose stock happens to be going up. A good business has characteristics that we would seek if we were looking to buy the entire thing, even if when only looking at a small, publicly traded slice. Such as: 1. Steady cash flow through good times and bad, 2. Sound financial footings with no Wall Street hocus-pocus, 3. Enduring advantages over their rivals, 4. Management that is both competent and committed to treating shareholders like owners and partners, not just anonymous donors.

Pay Me Now and Later

Many large businesses score well on the criteria listed above, but what of my last point? How can we know that CEOs and directors are treating shareholders well? Dividends, of course, meaningful and sustainable payments of cash that reward our investment directly.

Lots of companies pay dividends, but most are far too small. A yield of 1% does nothing for you, even if short-term interest rates are near zero. What you want to see are yields well above the market's average of 2%. Not only do yields of 3%, 5% or 7% demonstrate that a business is run on a paying basis for its shareholders, but they provide income that investors can use to fund their retirement or reinvest to earn even more income down the road.

Not Just Income but Income Growth

Even so, the dividends you receive today are only part of the story. Investment recommendations must also provide increasing dividends over time. Think of it this way: A 5% dividend yield from, say, Consolidated Edison ED looks good at first glance. Yet if that dividend doesn't grow at least as fast as inflation over time and Con Ed's hasn't, the stock isn't going to have much reason to go up. You might as well own a bond. But when you can combine a good dividend yield with reasonable, sustainable growth, you'll have an investment machine firing on all cylinders.

In It for the Long Haul

Finally, with dividend investing you want to take a long-term view. I know this is not a popular perspective these days; most of Wall Street and its media hounds are all about action, action, action. But this isn't how a good entrepreneur invests; enduring rewards take time to build. Dividends in particular have virtually no use for speculators and market timers. They take months and even years to accumulate. But as they accumulate, dividends reduce your risk and build lasting returns.

You might be thinking, "If only investing could be this simple!" But why make investing more complicated than it needs to be?

Simple, of course, does not necessarily mean easy. Like all investors, you've had to deal with a bubble and bust economy, uncomfortable volatility in stock prices, companies that fail to hold up their end of the bargain and, at times, your own mistakes. But the bottom line is this: Through a terrible period for the stock market, this process has enabled investors to generate higher returns than the market in general and a lot higher than dividend paying stocks as a group. The good dividends that accumulate, grow and compound have kept your portfolio on the right track.

Recognize that these are difficult times we live in. It's tough for savers and investors to get a fair shake. The markets are not always kind, even to investors who stick with a sound, long-term, income-rich strategy.

Yet dividends provide a way to put your money hard at work through income and income growth. Better yet, a dedicated approach based as it is entirely on dividend prospects has demonstrated that it can make your dividends work even harder.

My "pitch" holds no mystery: If Dividend investing sounds like a method that might help you meet your family's financial goals, then give it a try.

found at:http://invest2success.blogspot.com/

Bearish Flag

Bearish Flag

Definition:

A bearish flag forms in the context of a bearish trend. The inverted flagpole of the pattern is formed when a stock stages a sharp downward move in a short period of time. Like the bullish flag, there are two types of bearish flags. One type has horizontal support and resistance. The other type of bearish flag has upward sloping support and resistance levels.

Bearish flags with precise horizontal support and resistance levels are rare, but generally strong indications that the bearish trend will continue. These types of bearish flags usually require a long time horizon to unfold.

Trader Tip

Bearish flags with upward sloping support and resistance are common. These bearish flags occur regularly within the context of a bearish trend. Bearish flags with upward sloping support and resistance tend to be shorter-term and very actionable.

Nuance:

Bearish flags with horizontal support and resistance are rare. When they do form, they are typically long-term in nature and driven by a significant news event or other fundamental development.

Bearish flags with upward sloping support and resistance are common. These bearish flags are relatively easier to trade because action points are precise.

Rarely will you see a either type of bearish form over the course of years.

Application:

A bearish flag is confirmed once the stock closes below the lower-end of the flag, whether the flag is horizontal or upward sloping. A stock might initially breakdown from a bearish flag, below support, but then retest previous support before ultimately trending lower.

A bearish flag is rejected if the stock breaks out and above the upper-end of the flag. This rejection of the bearish flag may mark the beginning of a short-term bullish trend.

Example:

Shares of Group 1 Automotive (GPI) traced a bearish flag in above figure with horizontal support and resistance. Notice how the stock traded sideways, between $39 and $43 for several months after a sharp drop. The stock took its time consolidating such a steep drop before ultimately continuing lower.

Observe how previous support at the lower-end of the bearish flag at $39 served as resistance after the stock broke down. In fact, there were two separate occasions when GPI traded up to $39 and subsequently rolled over, after it broke down from the bearish flag.

Example:

The bearish flag with upward sloping support and resistance is show in shares of Brunswick (BC) in above figure. The stock steadily trended lower for several months before staging a short-term rebound, during which it formed a bullish channel. In the context of the overall bearish trend, the short-term bullish channel helped to define the bearish flag.

The stock broke down in a decisive way from the bearish flag, offering a precise entry point into new bearish positions. Following the breakdown from the bearish flag at $23, BC continued lower over the next several months, falling as low as $17.

123 Bottom

123 Bottom

Definition:

The 123 bottom is the most common bullish reversal pattern. The requirements for the 123 bottom are rather common, causing the pattern to frequently appear in existing bearish trends. Many 123 bottoms reach the first two conditions, but never confirm. The 123 bottom, therefore, can be somewhat deceiving. That’s why it’s imperative that the pattern confirms before placing trades.

The 123 bottom starts when a stock sharply reverses higher after an extended bearish trend. This sharp rebound is the first requirement of the pattern, or part 1. The second requirement is for the stock to halt its rally attempt at short-term resistance, which is part 2 of the pattern. Part 3 of the pattern forms when the stock stages another sharp rebound, but from a relatively higher level than in part 1. The 123 bottom confirms when the stock breaks above short-term resistance as defined in part 2.

Nuance:

A basic definition of a bearish trend is lower lows. A basic definition of a bullish trend is higher lows. The 123 bottom seeks to identify when a pattern of lower lows ends and a new pattern of higher lows begins.

Another way to think of a 123 bottom is as a very short-term cup and handle, only the 123 bottom occurs at the end of a bearish trend.

The 123 bottom occurs in most bearish trends, but it rarely confirms. When it does confirm, it’s best to take a very short-term approach to trading the 123 bottom. Taking profits quickly is generally a good idea after entering a 123 bottom.

Application:

A 123 bottom is confirmed once the stock breaks above the horizontal resistance level as defined in part 2 of the definition. An entry can be taken as soon as the stock crosses its short-term resistance. This resistance will often act as support in the days following a breakout.

A 123 bottom is rejected if the stock fails to break above resistance or falls below the relative low traced in part 3. A drop below the relative low in part 3 reveals a very short-term pattern of lower lows, which is a bearish indication.

Example:

Shares of Goldman Sachs (GS) traced a 123 bottom over the course of three weeks as shown in below figure. The pattern began when the stock rebounded from $160, tracing part 1. The pattern continued to unfold when GS reached up to but rolled over from the $180 level. This was part 2 of the pattern and served as short-term resistance. Part 3 of the pattern was formed when GS pulled back to near $170, which was $10 higher than the low in part 1. The pattern was confirmed one week later when GS broke above resistance at $180, and aggressively trended higher.